Speech by OAO Gazprom Management Committee Chairman Alexey Miller “The impact of the financial crisis on investments and the demand-supply balance ...

Esteemed Ladies and Gentlemen!

I am pleased to have the opportunity to elaborate in front of such a distinguished audience the important issue of the development of the oil price under the global financial and economic crisis, and to provide an outlook on the supply-demand outlook for oil in the coming years.

It is clear that the current crisis has not only triggered a fall in “black gold” prices. What is more important is that it made them volatile and unpredictable, which is detrimental to various industries. The questions “How much should oil cost?” and “What will be the oil price in the foreseeable future?” are not rhetoric. The energy sector is the cornerstone of the world economy. Therefore, the question whether we will reach what many people call the “fair price” for oil will determine to a major extent 1) When and 2) How the economic crisis will be overcome.

Everyone remembers a rather long period when the “black gold” (and natural gas with a certain delay) broke price records on exchanges. And many of you will recall that only a year ago we had to admit the possibility of a major imbalance between demand and supply of hydrocarbons by 2012. At that time, we at Gazprom estimated that such a supply gap could lead to price hikes of above 250 USD per barrel of crude. This forecast has not become reality yet, given that the crisis gained momentum and exerted a powerful impact on the global energy market. But does this mean that our forecast was unrealistic? Not at all!

To explain what I mean, let me turn to an analysis of the current market situation:

There are objective reasons to predict the oil market has pinpointed 100 USD per barrel as benchmark price in 2010. The market has critically reviewed the ratio of production (current and near-future), reserves (existing and potential), expected demand for energy, and the price level. The market reacted to the natural production decrease at existing fields – which amounts to some 7% annually – and to the crisis-caused fall of capital expenditure in the industry. Thus, when we see that over the past weeks the oil prices closed at around 70 USD, then this is not a technical correction or accidental fluctuation, but a return to a pre-crisis trend. Today, we see that the market reflects changes in economic developments. The trend we see is acceptable for consumers. There are sufficient objective grounds for the oil price to rise to 85 USD per barrel by the end of 2009.

At the same time, however, structural changes on the oil market did not take place. Oil prices continue to excessively depend on “non-energy” factors. Who can guarantee that oil prices will not fall again because of yet another bankruptcy in the financial sector?

In consequence, this means that producers will not invest because of systemic price risks.

I believe the current situation does not give raise to optimism amongst energy importers. The prices are already relatively high, while there are still no guarantees that further increases in demand will be supported by a sufficient growth of investments and the resource base. Expectations remain that trimmed capital expenditure programs of international oil majors caused by the high volatility of the crude oil market will reduce production capacities and oil supply on the market in 3-5 years. Investments into geological exploration and production in the global oil and gas sector will fall by over 20% in 2009. If capital expenditure is not restored, the forecast of “150 USD per barrel of oil in two to three years” voiced by Saudi Arabian representatives at the Energy Forum in Rome in May will come true.

All that is a sign of a systemic weakness of the oil market. We have to radically review our approaches towards the operation of the oil market.

I would like to note that so far there is no global energy threat related to a shortage of energy carriers. However, fossil fuel production is gradually moving away from major consuming centers and the development of resources is becoming more expensive. Therefore, the future supply of energy resources critically depends on the costs of the start-up and operation of new fields. If the oil price remains as volatile as in the past year, many fields, which the market needs and hopes for, will remain undeveloped.

The start-up of oil fields which are subject to more complicated production conditions, such as shelf fields, will demand bigger investments. They have to reach some 400 billion dollars per year! Therefore, in several years time the world may face a physical shortage of production capacities, which will then trigger an increase of investments in production, but this effect will not immediately emerge. As long as the market is excessively volatile, it is absolutely clear that existing reserves will not be developed rapidly enough to satisfy the expected demand.

We believe that an expanded and intensified dialogue between consumers and producers of hydrocarbons could help all players on the energy market to decrease risks related to the instability of the oil price and provide for the necessary investments.

We have to radically revise the existing pricing system on the oil market. The problem is that today the price is determined not on the physical oil market, but on a market for financial instruments. As a consequence, the oil price greatly depends not on fundamental factors, not on the real oil demand and supply, but on the activities of speculating investors.

The imbalance in favor of “financial” transactions on the oil market has lead to a situation where the oil price mostly reflects the trends on the equity market rather than on the hydrocarbons market. In recent years, we have witnessed an excessive role of “third forces” on the oil market, which have nothing to do neither with the production of hydrocarbons nor with their consumption. Exclusively financial transactions with oil contracts on exchanges made the price depend not on the demand and supply, not on the assessment of future trends, but on the availability of financial resources for such transactions and the “well-being” of the financial market.

But the price of oil as a commodity only has an economic sense if it depends on a large number of real, not virtual market deals. Otherwise, the oil market does not differ in any way from the securities market, in spite of the fact that oil plays a very different role in the global economy. Large-scale investments into oil as a form of value conservation does not stand up to economic scrutiny. It plays a destabilizing role in global economy.

The consequences of these worrying developments are peak prices - such as we have seen in the middle of last year - and inadequately low prices as we have witnessed earlier this year. This situation may have improved somewhat over the last few weeks. It remains true, however, that this year’s oil price dynamics overall reflect the crisis on the financial markets rather than the actual hydrocarbons demand-supply ratio.

It is against this background that we at Gazprom welcomed the recent proposal of Mr. Paolo Scaroni, the president of the Italian ENI, to create a Global Oil Agency. It is an important idea, and we are ready to discuss cooperation possibilities provided the understanding that such an agency will, first and foremost, promote transparency and competitiveness of the global oil market.

One of the major instruments to focus the oil market on deals with physical oil volumes may lie in the predominant use of long-term oil supply contracts, which, unified terms provided, can be concluded in the framework of exchange trading. The creation of a unified system of long-term contracts for physical supplies will allow accounting for real oil production and transportation costs in the price and will put producers into a situation where they can better plan their long-term investments. Long-term contracts will restrict the impact of speculative capital on the oil price. Such over-the-counter contracts are traditionally used in the gas industry and promote reliable supplies.

The system of long-term contracts should be supported by the creation of a unified settlement and payment system with a controlled cast of participants that would help to gradually drive out economically unjustified intermediaries. We are ready to discuss approaches to implement such a scheme with our partners.

Another important issue concerns the decrease of systemic risks of the global oil market. It makes sense to secure the oil market from instabilities on the currency market to the maximum. Therefore, we should consider the reform of the existing system of linking oil prices to only one currency. It is in the interests of all market participants to decrease the impact of currency risks on the operations of the global oil market and to develop a multi-currency settlement system.

The monopoly position of the major NYMEX trade floor and the absence of trading in numerous oil grades bar major producers from the market. It is necessary to create a new Oil Exchange of producing countries, which will really trade in physical volumes. Russia will continue to support the creation of new liquid markers. The example of the Dubai exchange with contracts for physical Oman oil deliveries showed the market is greatly interested in enhanced transparency of the pricing mechanism for sour crude.

The current instability of oil prices cannot be explained by efficient market laws and it creates numerous problems for the global economy. Russian and international oil companies continue to encounter difficulties in planning capital expenditure returns and deadlines, while consumers of oil and its products have no idea even of the mid-term dynamic of their cost expenses.

Therefore, it would be erroneous to think that all our initiatives are just an attempt to secure major profits to producers. The problem of inadequacy of market mechanisms in oil trade has a global significance. Today the world has encountered a large-scale shortage of investments in the oil and gas industry. And it happened in the most improper time when a new investment cycle in the industry has begun. As a result, when the global economy begins to recover from the crisis, the oil and gas sector will be incapable of supporting the positive dynamic by the necessary volume of supplies.

So, nobody has solved the issue of the “2012 supply gap”. It may emerge somewhat later, but it will be deeper. It means prices may even jump over the 250 USD hurdle, which we have forecasted a year ago.

If we want to smooth out the price shock of the “2012 supply gap”, oil must reliably cost more. Stability in oil prices is the key. There should be no speculative component in the price.

Some claim that the crisis is not a good time for modernization, that it is impossible to implement large-scale programs to raise the efficiency of the use of resources in the time of crisis. That is a disputable argument. It is exactly during a crisis, at times when everybody looks for improving processes and economizing means, that reforms are possible.

It is only by ensuring a reliably high oil price that we will be able to support investment programs of producers and to launch real projects to increase energy efficiency amongst consumers. It is only this way that we can bridge the “2012 supply gap” with minimal negative effects for the global economic system.

In conclusion, I would like to repeat: both for Russia and all major players on the oil market the creation of efficient market architectures must be a priority. We cannot and should not remain hostage to uncontrolled developments!

Thank you for your attention.

Gazprom delegation participates in European Business Congress

Porto Cervo (Italy) hosted today the opening of the 12th Annual General Assembly of the European Business Congress (EBC). The Assembly brings together the representatives of around 250 companies and organizations from 23 OSCE member states. A Gazprom delegation is headed by Alexey Miller, the Company’s Management Committee Chairman, EBC President.

Within the EBC General Assembly a conference on “Energy Sector: Financial Markets Crisis and its Impact on Investments and Energy Supply-Demand Balance” was held. Speaking at the conference were Alexey Miller, Management Committee Chairman and Andrey Kruglov, Finance and Economics Department Head, Gazprom.

Leonid Grigoriev, President of the Institute of Energy and Finance also delivered a speech. He pointed out that “the crisis is gaining momentum. The investment flows from developed countries to the developing ones have almost come to a halt, and capital investments have sharply declined in the USA and Europe. This provokes a threat of retreating to the vicious price spiral when the crisis causes a shortage of investments, and by the recovery start-up there is a lack of energy leading to a price hike. Such cases already happened.

If we want to avoid such violent fluctuations and achieve stability of investment planning, we have to rely on two important components. First of all, we have to establish stable oil prices. This would entail stability and predictability of gas prices in the EU and would make it possible to perform extended economic planning in all sectors. Secondly, we have to make investments under the crisis: if we want to eliminate wild price fluctuations we should pay great attention to the investments in production and infrastructure”.

During the 12th EBC Annual Assembly Alexey Miller met with Andrew Gould, Board of Directors Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Schlumberger, Dimitrios Copelouzos, Managing Director of Prometheus Gas S.A. and Marcel Kramer, Executive Board Chairman and CEO of Gasunie.

On June 11, the following Working Groups will hold their sessions: Law, Banking and Finance headed by Andrey Kruglov, Industry and Construction headed by Oleg Aksyutin, Management Committee Member – Gas Transportation, Underground Storage and Utilization Department Head of Gazprom, and Business Security headed by Sergey Khomyakov, Deputy Chairman of Gazprom Management Committee.

Background:

The European Business Congress (EBC) comprises 117 companies from 23 OSCE member states including such prominent corporations and banks as Gazprom, ExxonMobil, Daimler Chrysler, Siemens, Shell, ConocoPhillips, Total, Deutsche Bank, Dresdner Bank, Alcatel, Wintershall, E.ON Ruhrgas, GDF SUEZ and others. The EBC Secretariat is headquartered in Berlin. EBC publishes its bulletin in English and Russian on a quarterly basis.

EBC supreme body is the General Meeting. The 35-member Presiding Committee exercises general management. The EBC President is Alexey Miller, Chairman of Gazprom Management Committee. The 9-member Board of Executive Directors is responsible for executive management.

EBC deals with economic cooperation issues in Europe and brings forward proposals on eliminating bottlenecks and building a safe and favorable environment for entrepreneurial activities. EBC operates through seven Working Committees for: Energy; Industry and Construction; Law, Banking and Finance; Information and Communications; Ecology and Healthcare; Human Resources, Education and Science; Business Security.



Information Directorate, OAO Gazprom

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Micex tries to eat RTS's lunch with Gazprom and Sberbank futures ... Futures and Options Intelligence (subscription) - London,England,UK The Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange will launch its first single stock futures, on Gazprom and Sberbank, on Monday next week (April 27), responding to a ... See all stories on this topic Eni Gets Defensive Forbes - NY,USA Eni will also have more freedom to protect its 1.30-euro dividend, especially after selling $4.2 billion worth of assets to Gazprom ( OGZPY - news - people ... See all stories on this topic US urges Central Asia to boost gas export routes The Associated Press ASHGABAT, Turkmenistan (AP) — A recent crippling gas pipeline blast in Turkmenistan, which the government blamed on Russia's gas monopoly Gazprom, ... See all stories on this topic Bulgaria wants from Russia more profitable contract with "Gazprom" News.bg - Sofia,Bulgaria A week ago Bulgaria has requested from Russia a new, more profitable for Bulgaria contract with "Gazprom" for the supplies of natural gas. ... See all stories on this topic Gazprom: We expect clear EU position on South Stream project Focus News - Sofia,Bulgaria South Stream must become a priority not only for Gazprom, but for the EU as well and should be implemented regardless of the political and economic ... See all stories on this topic Lower Oil Prices Hurt Eni's Net Wall Street Journal - USA Analysts said they will focus on possible comments on acquisition opportunities and capital expenditure after OAO Gazprom agreed this month to pay Eni $4.2 ... See all stories on this topic Russia MegaFon could pay $300mln in 08 divs-report Forbes - NY,USA The pay out comes at a time when major Russian companies such as Gazprom are slashing dividends as the economy goes through its deepest economic crisis in a ... See all stories on this topic Gazprom prices through secondaries Euroweek.com (registration) - London,England,UK Gazprom last week became the first Russian corporate borrower to price a benchmark dollar Eurobond since last summer, locating a deep pool of private bank ... See all stories on this topic Gazprom and EON could close Siberian asset deal in summer SteelGuru - Gurgaon,Haryana,India RIA Novosti citing Wulf Bernotat head of E.ON as saying that Gazprom and Germany's E.ON could close a deal for the German company to join the development of ... See all stories on this topic EP attempts to stop Gazprom Focus News - Sofia,Bulgaria If implemented, the new legislation will put an end to Gazprom's aspirations to reach the European consumers and take control over the Old Continent's ... See all stories on this topic

Gazprom Neft seeks a minority stake in Sibir

Gazprom Neft seeks a minority stake in Sibir MarketWatch - USA Renaissance said it invites offers for the sale of shares in Sibir at 500 pence a share on behalf of Gazprom Neft. Also Thursday, Credit Suisse said that it ... See all stories on this topic Gazprom arm takes lead in Sibir bidding Financial Times - London,England,UK By Catherine Belton in Moscow Gazprom Neft, the state-controlled oil major, was left in the driving seat on Thursday for a stake in Sibir Energy, ... See all stories on this topic Bulgaria offers own version for the "South stream" network News.bg - Sofia,Bulgaria "The Bulgarian energy holding" and "Gazprom" to sign a transit agreement for the "South stream" gas pipeline, which to give possibility for the Russian ... See all stories on this topic Gazprom Neft Seeks Minority Stake In Sibir; TNK-BP Backs Out Wall Street Journal - USA Moscow-based investment bank Renaissance Capital said Thursday it is offering to buy Sibir shares at 500 pence each on behalf of Gazprom Neft - 70 pence ... See all stories on this topic Gazprom Neft Bid for Sibir Energy Prompts TNK-BP Exit Bloomberg - USA By Stephen Bierman April 23 (Bloomberg) -- OAO Gazprom Neft, the oil arm of Russia's state-run gas exporter, offered to buy shares in Sibir Energy Plc for ... See all stories on this topic Gazprom Neft seeks Sibir stake, price trumps TNK-BP Forbes - NY,USA LONDON, April 23 (Reuters) - Gazprom Neft is seeking to buy shares in London-listed Sibir Energy at 500 pence a share to acquire a significant minority ... See all stories on this topic TNK-BP steps back from Sibir Energy, Gazprom steps forward Proactive Investors UK - London,England,UK Shortly afterwards, Renaissance Securities confirmed that it was now acting on behalf of Gazprom and was inviting offers for the sale of Sibir Energy shares ... See all stories on this topic Gazprom recommends 1.28 rbls 08 div-source Reuters UK - UK MOSCOW, April 23 (Reuters) - The board of Russian gas giant Gazprom (GAZP.MM) recommends 2008 dividends at 1.28 roubles ($0.037) per share, down from the ... See all stories on this topic Gazprom Neft seeks Sibir stake, price trumps TNK-BP Reuters India - Mumbai,India LONDON, April 23 (Reuters) - Gazprom Neft (SIBN.MM: Quote, Profile, Research) is seeking to buy shares in London-listed Sibir Energy (SBE. ... See all stories on this topic Gazprom recommends 08 divs at 1.28 rbls/shr-source Reuters UK - UK MOSCOW, April 23 (Reuters) - The board of Russian gas export monopoly Gazprom (GAZP.MM) recommends 2008 dividends at 1.28 roubles ($0.037) per share, ... See all stories on this topic

EU passes new rules on opening up gas and electricity markets ...

EU passes new rules on opening up gas and electricity markets ... Los Angeles Times - CA,USA This clause was aimed at Russian state-owned gas monopoly OAO Gazprom, which owns gas storage units across Europe. Consumer advocates BEUC welcomed new ... See all stories on this topic Russia Gazprom Neft buys Chevron plant in Italy Forbes - NY,USA MILAN, April 22 (Reuters) - Russia's Gazprom Neft, the oil arm of gas giant Gazprom, has bought a lubricants plant in Italy from US company Chevron as it ... See all stories on this topic Gazprom Neft Buys Italian Lubricants Plant From Chevron Wall Street Journal - USA RS), the oil arm of Russian gas firm OAO Gazprom (GAZP.RS), has bought a lubricants plant in Italy from US oil major Chevron Corp. ... See all stories on this topic Gazprom primes South Korea study Upstream Online - Oslo,Oslo,Norway Russian gas giant Gazprom is poised to carry out an investment study covering shipments of natural gas to South Korea and is looking at possible ... See all stories on this topic Putin gets to work on Turkmenistan Asia Times Online - Kowloon,Hong Kong By Vladimir Socor Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, evidently disturbed by Turkmenistan's recent moves to crack Gazprom's monopsony, has publicly ... See all stories on this topic Gazprom prepares for testing of Prirazlomnaya Barents Observer - Archangel,Russia The Prirazlomnaya platform will be handed over to Gazprom in 2010, after which testing of the ice-protected platform will start in the Barents Sea. ... See all stories on this topic Ukrainian fuel and energy minister denies Gazprom fine demand Ukrainian Journal (subscription) - Staten Island,NY,USA KIEV, April 21 – Russia's Gazprom did not demand that Naftogaz Ukrayiny pay fines for not pumping contacted volumes of gas in Q1, Ukrainian Fuel and Energy ... See all stories on this topic Turkmenistan Delays Russian Pipeline Project and Rejects Russian ... Jamestown Foundation - Washington,DC,USA Evidently disturbed by Turkmenistan's recent moves to crack Gazprom's monopsony, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has publicly instructed Deputy Prime ... See all stories on this topic PREVIEW-Gas diplomacy heats up over Turkmen supplies Reuters UK - UK Turkmenistan -- Central Asia's biggest gas exporter -- sells most of its gas through Russian gas monopoly Gazprom (GAZP.MM) but it has shown growing ... See all stories on this topic Putin to Skip Energy Conference in Sofia The Moscow Times - Russia Asked whether Putin's change of plans was associated with Russia's displeasure about the declaration that ignored Gazprom's interests as the main user of ... See all stories on this topic

German partner might decrease stake in Nord Stream

German partner might decrease stake in Nord Stream Barents Observer - Archangel,Russia Nord Stream is a joint project of Gazprom (51%), BASF/Wintershall (20%), E.ON Ruhrgas (20%) and Gasunie (9%). The first of two gas lines, ... See all stories on this topic Ukraine, Russia audit chambers say RosUkrEnergo owes $514 million ... Kyiv Post - Kyiv,Ukraine The Audit Chambers of both Ukraine and Russia confirm a positive balance of RosUkrEnergo's debt to Russia's Gazprom natural gas monopoly in the amount of ... See all stories on this topic Gazprom: Talking To GDF To Enter Nord Stream Pipeline Project Wall Street Journal - USA A spokesman for Russian natural gas monopoly OAO Gazprom (GAZP.RS), which leads the consortium with a 51% stake, Tuesday said talks are underway with GDF, ... See all stories on this topic Gazprom to sign pipeline agreements United Press International - USA SOFIA, Bulgaria, April 21 (UPI) -- The Russian energy giant Gazprom said it will sign agreements with Bulgaria, Serbia and Greece on its South Stream gas ... See all stories on this topic Nigeria: FG Shortlists Gazprom, 14 Others For Gas Devt AllAfrica.com - Washington,USA Abuja — Russian gas giant Gazprome and Shell are among the 15 shortlisted companies for Nigeria's gas monetisation and development programme under the ... See all stories on this topic Nigeria: Russian President Due in Country June for Gazprom AllAfrica.com - Washington,USA Gazprom has already announced its plans to carry out multi-billion investments to promote Nigeria's effort towards gas utilization and development. ... See all stories on this topic Novinite.com Gazprom to Contract Bulgaria for South Stream in 2009 Novinite.com - Sofia,Bulgaria Gazprom will sign agreements with Bulgaria, Serbia and Greece for its new South Stream gas pipeline to Europe this year, the deputy director of the Russian ... See all stories on this topic Gazprom: Co-Operative Deal with Bulgaria to be Signed this Year Bulgarian News Network - Sofia,Bulgaria The co-operative agreements between Russian gas giant Gazprom and the governments of Bulgaria, Serbia and Greece will be signed this year, ... See all stories on this topic President Ilham Aliyev: Azerbaijan can supply to Russia 5 bn cu m ... Azerbaijan Business Center - Azerbaijan For Azerbaijan co-operation between Russia's Gazprom and State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCVAR) is an issue of diversification of gas supplies as today ... See all stories on this topic Gazprom Neft plans USD 299 million bonds SteelGuru - Gurgaon,Haryana,India The Moscow Times reported that Gazprom was selling RUB 10 billion of bonds in its debut offering of domestic debt. Gazprom oil unit said in a statement that ... See all stories on this topic

Gazprom saving energy

Банк Москвы ИА ФИНМАРКЕТ - Москва,Russia Gazprom placed 10-year eurobond with a 3-year put at 9.25 %, without a premium. Due to this, the price went lower than the par value. At the ruble market, ... See all stories on this topic Gazprom saving energy Barents Observer - Archangel,Russia The Russian economy can easily save up to 100 billion cubic meters of gas per year if energy efficiency measures are taken, a Gazprom representative said. ... See all stories on this topic Slowdown signs - Gazprom Neft proven reserves fall by 24% YoY SteelGuru - Gurgaon,Haryana,India Interfax reported that Gazprom Neft proven SEC reserves fell by 23% in 2008 to 3.247 billion barrels of oil equivalent. The company said in its financial ... See all stories on this topic Gazprom Neft Plans $299M Bond The Moscow Times - Russia Gazprom Neft has $5.8 billion of loans outstanding, including $1.5 billion due this year. Gazprom Neft said it would use the proceeds for "general corporate ... See all stories on this topic Gazprom Sells $2.25Bln in Bonds The Moscow Times - Russia Gazprom's sale is the state-owned company's biggest debt raising and makes it the first Russian issuer of dollar notes since Transneft sold $1.65 billion of ... See all stories on this topic Aliyev Proposes Selling Gas to Europe The Moscow Times - Russia Last month, Gazprom and the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan, or Socar, agreed to start talks on Russia buying Azeri gas with "delivery at the border" as ... See all stories on this topic Russia, Azerbaijan seek broader gas ties Forbes - NY,USA Last month, the head of Azerbaijan's national energy company met with officials of Russia's state gas monopoly Gazprom and gave a preliminary pledge to ... See all stories on this topic